Commentary: A depression by any other name would still stink

Long Island Business News, Oct 17, 2008 by John Kominicki

Federal Reserve officials have been tap dancing around the R- word for the past year, unwilling to concede that the economy has slipped into that enigmatic condition known as "negative growth."

Part of their reluctance is politics. The reigning party hates to hobble its man with bad economic juju just before an election. The rest is tradition: The economy has not yet met the long-used statistical measure of recession, namely three consecutive quarters of decline ... er, negative growth.

So cheer up all you realtors, the statistics say we're doing fine!

Further complicating things is the possibility that the economy has already raced right through recession and is now hovering perilously close to the D-word.

As I write this, the stock market is down 40 percent. Credit is so tight you can't borrow enough for a trip to Starbucks. And retailers are predicting the worst holiday season since the invention of rayon.

Some of our most ivy-covered investment houses are no more, sold off overseas or under the Mason Dixon, others broken up and hard- scrabbled. There is still the chance of a single national bank called JPMorgan Nothing Left to Chase.

What to call this very depressing non-recession? How to describe future economic calamities if we're not going to use the old, comfortable terms anymore? Allow me to offer a few suggestions.

De-session: In this situation, Congress goes on extended break until the economy improves. If they take Ben Bernanke with them, so much the better.

Digression: A "digression" occurs when the Fed holds repeated press conferences on the economy but never actually gets around to saying what the problem is. It's a lot like a Joe Biden speech.

Rehessian: The economy slows as Wall Street inexplicably takes time off to reenact the Battle of Trenton.

Transgression: An economic condition set off by Gekko-esque Wall Street greed that deepens as investment bankers borrow federal money to pay each other zillion-dollar bonuses that are taxed as long- term capital gains instead of income.

Example: "Federal Reserve officials announced today that over- leveraged deals by Lehman Brothers and repeated spa trips by AIG execs have forced the economy into a transgression. Details at 11."

Meshugganession: This sharp economic downturn begins when the president goes on national television to announce that, "as it turns out, heh, heh, there's an inter-link between the financial markets."

What's that? He already did? Well, now we have a name for it.

Impression: Stripped of their huge annual bonuses, Wall Street execs are forced to sell their art collections to buy food. At long last, it's Monet that makes the world go 'round.

Regression: During a regression, the Dow slips to 20-year lows and the president starts skipping National Guard meetings again.

Acid-refluxession: Take two bailouts and call Henry Paulson in the morning.

We should not be surprised by Washington's inability to call the duck a duck. These are the same folks, after all, who couldn't stomach the inconvenient truth of global warming and, instead, gave us the kinder, gentler "climate change."

Look! The polar caps have melted and are flooding Battery Park!

Yep, that's climate change for you. Better call Kyoto.

Washington wordsmiths have also given us "enhanced interrogation techniques," which fall somewhere between standard police questioning and, well, torture. Included are such popular pastimes as waterboarding and the very effective "long time standing," which involves shackling a prisoner upright to an eyebolt in the floor for 40 hours.

Don't even ask about "cold cell."

Pork barrel politicking - via which one brings home the bacon for local constituents - was a Washington fixture for decades, but no more. Today, our delegates attach much less onerous "earmarks" to spending bills, building the same bridges to nowhere, but with much less public clamor.

The newest euphemism for pork: "legislatively directed spending."

I'm happy to report that Congress has not yet invented a work- around for "larding," a cooking term for adding fat to lean cuts of meat and, therefore, the perfect bon mot for those covering Washington's attempts at sausage-making.

Congress' recently passed bailout plan was "larded up" with hundreds of millions of dollars in legislatively directed pig ears, including a $100 million tax break for racetrack owners and a cool $148 million for wool producers who use imported yarn.

Even Hollywood got in on the feasting, winning a tax break for film and television companies who promise to keep their production in the United States. It's worth $480 million over 10 years.

The Dow should be back above 9,000 by then.

If not, I think we'll all be ready for a little regime change.