Preseason good start to possible turnaround

0 Comments | Gazette, The (Colorado Springs), Aug 27, 2000 | by John Branch

DENVER - It's difficult to get too worked up over a preseason, even one in which the Broncos went 4-0. Brian Griese looked sharp and Terrell Davis looked recovered.

But the Broncos are feeling good about themselves, and for good reason. A quick look at the final preseason statistics confirm - as if the record isn't the final arbiter - that the team played well, especially in comparison to the 1999 regular season.

The good

Denver averaged 30.25 points, a number akin to the 1998 and 1997 Super Bowl regular seasons (31.3 and 29.5, respectively). During the regular season last year, the average was 19.6.

Quarterback Brian Griese's passing efficiency skyrocketed. A meager 75.6 last year, it climbed close to 120 during the preseason, a level which would set NFL records if he could match it in the regular season. He won't. But the improvement is mostly because Griese's completion percentage jumped from 57.7 percent to 65.6. And Griese threw three touchdowns and no interceptions, as opposed to 14 of each in 1999.

Most importantly, however, is this obscure stat: The Broncos averaged 8.98 yards every time Griese threw the ball. That's a function of Griese's improved completion percentage and his propensity to throw the ball further downfield. In 1999, the number was 6.71 yards per attempt.

Denver committed just three turnovers (one interception and two fumbles) in four preseason games. Keep up that pace and the team will be hard-pressed not to win the majority of its games. Last season, the Broncos committed 28 turnovers (18 interceptions, 10 fumbles).

Denver's four leading pass catchers were wide receivers, an indication that the Broncos are looking to spread the ball around more and toss it downfield. In past years, at least two of the five top receivers on the team were running backs or tight ends. It could, of course, also mean that the team misses tight end Shannon Sharpe. It's preseason; think positive.

The Broncos outscored opponents 121-84. A wise man once said that the chances of winning increase significantly simply by outscoring your opponent.

The bad

The defense gave up an average of 5.41 yards per play during the preseason. (Strangely, it's exactly what the Denver offense earned per play. But that's good.) That number, for the defense, should be below 5.0. And if the defense continues to give up 5.2 yards per rush, it won't matter how mediocre the quarterbacks in the AFC West are.

The offense's third-down conversion percentage was 37.3 percent, roughly the same as the 36.7 percent of 1999. That won't keep enough drives alive to win games. Shanahan's teams usually hover in the mid- 40s.

The indifferent

The running attack looks much like it did last year, as the team averaged 4.0 yards per attempt. In coach Mike Shanahan's five seasons leading Denver, the team has never averaged fewer than 4.5 yards. The good news is that Terrell Davis, on 23 carries, averaged a Davis- like 5 yards per rush in the preseason.

With 12 sacks in four games, the Bronco pass rush is right on pace for where it has been in recent years.

For all the excitement and occasional stress that rookie Deltha O'Neal brings to fans, he has had little impact. His kickoff-return average was 26.3, which would put him among the league leaders in the regular season. But his punt-return average of 5.4 yards would have non-No. 1 draft picks out of the job. That number certainly will rise.