Business: Visionary | adams, economics, colorado

Gazette, The (Colorado Springs), Oct 7, 2007 by WAYNE HEILMAN

Tucker Hart Adams sat in on a college economics course in 1973 to learn how the federal government could spend more money than it takes in.

More than three decades later, the longtime Colorado Springs resident is retiring as one of the state's longestserving and most respected economists.

And, despite earning a doctoral degree in economics, Adams said she still hasn't determined how the federal government continues to outspend its income.

Adams, 69, is best known for her economics work -- including correctly predicting in 1999 that the state's economy would fall into a recession a year later. But her life's work is about more than forecasts. She has taught economics in Russia and consulted with businesses there for more than a decade to help draft business plans. She also has headed boards for a state agency that finances hospitals and the University of Colorado's fundraising arm.

"She is iconic in the community," said Tom Naughton, who heads the Colorado Springs operations of U.S. Bank, which sponsors her forecasts. "She has an innate ability to present economic data in a way the average consumer and businessperson can understand."

As a mother of four teenage daughters, Adams got her start in economics attending Tim Tregarthen's economics class at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs.

The Arkansas native was drawn to economics, having earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics.

"A mother and four teenage daughters and a teen foster daughter were not a good combination," Adams said. "I needed to get out of the house."

She took several more classes from him before Tregarthen told her to "stop messing around taking undergraduate courses and go on to graduate school."

Tregarthen recalled last week in an e-mail interview that Adams brought "extraordinary enthusiasm" to her assignments, which included statistical analyses of various economic data. He called Adams' work on essay questions for his class "dazzling."

Adams eventually enrolled in graduate school and earned a doctoral degree in economics from the university's main campus in Boulder. While in Boulder, she earned her first paycheck working as a graduate teaching assistant in the school's Economics Department.

"I remember going to the grocery store and thinking that I could buy anything I want because I was spending my own money. It was a very freeing moment," Adams said. "I had gotten married at 19 while in college and had never held a paying job up until that point."

Although she had expected to go into teaching, Adams instead was hired as a part-time economist by United Banks of Colorado Inc., which later was acquired by what is now Wells Fargo & Co. She earned $5 an hour and worked two days a week.

"I like to figure things out -- that is all economics is," Adams said. "If you enjoy doing something and it pays well, it is a nice job to have."

While at United Banks, she produced annual forecasts of the state economy and several local economies for a decade. That job would give her statewide visibility and a reputation for not sugar- coating her views, even when bank customers wanted a more upbeat prediction.

"My most important job is to help people understand where we are and how we got here and the industry forecast that affects us going forward," Adams said. "Sometimes you are right; sometimes you are wrong. The important part is the analysis you go through to get there."

Adams left United Banks in 1989, when the bank decided to shut down its economics department, to start her own consulting firm, The Adams Group Inc. Her clients have included U.S. Bank, the state tourism office, chambers of commerce and local governments.

This year, she's called for another recession to begin late this year, triggered by high consumer debt.

Nancy McCallin, who worked with Adams at United Banks and now heads the state's community college system, said Adams developed a large following because "she can explain economics in English. She helped people think critically and understand how the economy applies to them."

The 1999 recession forecast -- she was the state's first economist to predict it -- earned her the title "Duchess of Doom" from a Denver television news reporter.

"It is not true. I have forecast (economic) growth in good times. But I got the last recession correct, and I think I have this time too," Adams said. "I've never been told what I could say or couldn't say. I would have walked away if that had happened."

Adams has followed the Colorado economy through several economic cycles in the 30 years she has authored annual forecasts. The state was booming when she started, then fell into a nationwide recession in the early 1980s amid record-high interest rates.

Colorado boomed in the mid-1980s until a glut of housing and office space combined with the collapse of the state's oil industry to trigger the next recession. The state benefited greatly from the technology boom, but couldn't avoid the bust that followed.

"We were among the first to go into that recession and the last to come out," Adams said. "We have enjoyed a moderate period of economic growth in the last five years, but I believe the nation is either in a recession or very shortly will be and the state will follow suit."