Commentary: Landrieu camp more confident after major N.O.

New Orleans CityBusiness, May 15, 2006 by Jeff Crouere

With the unprecedented May 20 New Orleans mayoral runoff election days away, top strategists for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu like their chances.

Landrieu's major endorsements since the primary include the Alliance for Good Government, Ron Forman, District Attorney Eddie Jordan, Criminal Sheriff Marlin Gusman, Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee, Attorney General Charles Foti Jr. and the Rev. Paul Morton.

Nagin's one significant endorsement came from fourth-place finisher Rob Couhig, who interviewed the candidates and reportedly liked his responses best.

With the vast majority of votes coming from voters living in or near the New Orleans area, Landrieu and Nagin are not planning many out-of-town trips to campaign in front of displaced voters.

The one exception is for fund-raising. For example, Nagin traveled to Chicago Monday to collect $500,000 at a major political event. Nagin needs the help since Landrieu has been spending more aggressively during the runoff campaign.

Although Nagin enjoyed a 9 percentage point lead in the primary election, Landrieu is considered a slight favorite in the runoff.

Jefferson saga

Legal analysts expect officials from the Justice Department to meet soon with Rep. William Jefferson, D-New Orleans, to outline the case against him and possibly offer a plea deal. At this point, experts believe charges could be filed against Jefferson before the mid-term election. A potential deal could involve Dollar Bill pleading guilty to lesser charges and resigning his congressional seat.

Jefferson could fight the charges. A congressman does not have to relinquish his position if indicted or even convicted of a crime. There is precedent for Louisiana politicians to win elections even under indictment. The most recent example is former Insurance Commissioner Jim Brown, who won his race soon after being indicted.

Batt backers

In the New Orleans District A Council runoff, incumbent Jay Batt has become a slight favorite to win re-election over challenger Shelly Midura. The Republican Batt won 40 percent of the primary vote compared with 28 percent for Midura, a Democrat.

Last week, Batt was endorsed by third-place finisher Sal Palmisano and Forman, who remains popular in the Uptown neighborhoods of District A.

Batt has a distinct edge in campaign finances and name recognition, the traditional advantages of incumbency.

In Council District C, it was a good week for candidate Kristin Palmer. The Democrat picked up the endorsements of the Fraternal Order of Police, the Police Association of New Orleans, the Orleans Parish Republican Party and, most importantly, the Alliance for Good Government. Palmer placed second in the primary election to attorney James Carter.

Vitter's IQ support

The I Quit candidates running for assessor in New Orleans, vowing to quit and use their salary to hire a professional to audit the tax books, did OK in the primary election. In the seven assessor races, the incumbent won four outright, two gained a runoff but are unlikely to win and only one incumbent lost to an IQ candidate.

This result occurred despite assistance from Sen. David Vitter, R- Metairie, who appeared in television commercials supporting the IQ candidates. It was an unusual move because Vitter did not endorse in other races.

Couhig for Congress?

While Forman, the Rev. Tom Watson and Peggy Wilson ran poor races for mayor of New Orleans, Couhig ran a competitive race. He broke into the lineup of major competitors with an aggressive campaign that included sharp attacks on his opponents. Couhig effectively used his television advertisements and debate appearances to poke fun at his opponents and criticize their platforms. Now Couhig is being touted as a candidate for other offices, including the 1st District Congressional seat. If Rep. Bobby Jindal, R-Kenner, is elected governor in 2007 and vacates the congressional seat, Couhig may be a contender in what is sure to be a large field of candidates.

Jeff Crouere is the host of Ringside Politics, which airs at 8:30 p.m. Friday and 10:30 p.m. Sunday on WLAE-TV 32 and from noon to 2 p.m. Monday through Friday on WOMN 1110 AM on the North Shore and KVOL 1330 AM in Lafayette. Reach him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com.