RESEARCH; Who? What? How many?

AdMedia, Sep 16, 2004 by Steven Shaw

Nielsen Media Research magazine readership figures to June 2004, released in August, confounded many people both in publishing houses and media shops. While the ABC circulation figures for some titles was on the rise, the corresponding Nielsen figures didn't necessarily correspond, sometimes taking a contradictory dip.

That raised questions. How much importance do media shops place on the figures? And how do researchers like Nielsen and Roy Morgan gather their information?Michael Carney, media strategist at Mediacom, says the first phase of any campaign is choosing appropriate titles. "We'll be guided by a mix of both the current result and general trends incorporating readership and also circulation."Any single survey is unlikely to do anything other than confirm our prejudices and point in the direction of new opportunities. Surveys are used to support a choice rather than uncover a choice."Because of the different methodologies, you need to be aware of both while choosing one as the currency. For better or for worse, Nielsen has the significant share of the market in the magazine category." Carney describes Nielsen's figures as "more flattering to publishers" than the Roy Morgan figures."Putting it into context, it's the age-old battle between recency and specific-issue surveys," he says. "Nielsen figures tell us how the title is generally perceived and the Roy Morgan research tells us what the readership is of an individual issue. If we're doing a campaign where it's important to get to a small number of issues then the Roy Morgan figures increase in importance but if it's a general magazine campaign scattered across several titles then the Nielsen data will give us a feeling for the total campaign expectations."The Roy Morgan survey is based on someone saying here's this particular issue, have you seen it, looked at it, how long have you spent looking at it? They're given an issue and confirm they've read the particular issue. Whereas Nielsen will show a masthead and ask how recently have you looked at an issue of this publication for two minutes or more. Basically, Nielsen measures readership of any issue of a title in a defined period whereas Morgan measures readership of a specific issue of a title."Carney says there are a number of anomalies when comparing Nielsen readership figures with ABC circulation."I've isolated about eight consumer publications where the readership results are out of kilter with circulation results year-on-year. As much as I dig I can't find any particular reason that this should be so. I've looked at the data and age and sex - and frankly the differences are all over the place. Metro, for example, shows an increase in circulation but a significant decline in readership. There's no apparent reason why that would be so. I'd hate to draw any meaningful conclusions because there's nothing apparent."Andrew Whitney at Nielsen Media Research says that when analysing the relationship between circulation and readership, it's important to understand the methodology used by NMR to measure readership. "NMR uses a methodology called 'recency', which is the preferred methodology of over 90% of all readership surveys conducted around the world. The recency methodology measures the readership of any issue of a publication within an issue period."This provides an average issue readership figure based not only on the most recent issue, but also all the previous issues still in circulation that have been read within the issue period. For example, a monthly will be measured based on the readership of the latest issue and any prior issues still in circulation that have been read in that month."In this way we capture the total 'pool' of magazines in the market as well as the latest additions to that pool. This gives magazines time to build primary, secondary and tertiary readership and produces readers-per-copy figures [by dividing the readership estimate by the circulation figure] that are based on the total pool, not just the most recent issues."Whitney says a study of 'readership lag' by Millward Brown UK shows that 'Quality Monthlies' take just over two months to reach 50% of their total readership and five months to reach 80%. "This means it's a mistake to assume a title's readership will correspond exactly with its sales," he says. "There is not necessarily a direct relationship over a short period. When readership and circulation are compared over the long term it can be demonstrated that the trend in readership reflects the general trend in circulation." Whitney says there may be a lag however, especially for magazines that remain in the 'pool' longer than others, such as monthly and quarterly titles.Roy Morgan GM Steve Burns confirms that specific-issue is the methodology Morgan uses in NZ, but stresses the surveyor "doesn't carry a bag around of 400 titles". "We ask people when they first read or looked into the last issue. We're trying to measure how many of a specific issue were actually read."With Nielsen they say there's a pool there - and they're right. But you could be picking up on a 24-month-old Reader's Digest in a doctor's surgery. That person will still count as a reader of Reader's Digest. We're trying to give the advertiser a fair number; the best possible indication of how many people saw that specific issue."If I advertise in a January issue I'm not interested in how many people read the magazine in February or November - because I'm not advertising in those issues. Consequently, because Nielsen has the 'pool' method, it means Roy Morgan thinks Nielsen's magazine figures are overstated and Nielsen may say that Morgan's figures are understated."We think the publication that's current at this time is a more important measurement, more accountable to the advertiser."There's one thing they all agree on and Burns sums it up, saying, "There's been a lot of fire and brimstone around this issue." Is that a specific issue or just a recent one then?HOW THEY COMPAREABC: NZ net circulation for the six months to 30/06/04, compared to the same six months in 2003.Nielsen Media: National readership 10 (in thousands) for 12 months to June '04, compared to the previous 12 months. Roy Morgan: National readership 14 (in thousands) for 12 months to June '04, compared to the previous 12 months. HOW THEY COMPARE ABC ( /-%) Nielsen ( /-%) Morgan ( /-%) AA Directions 573,864 ( 6.19) 931 ( 5) 599 ( 0.4) Aust Women's Weekly 97,342 (- 1.56) 643 (-7) 325 (-0.4) Bride & Groom 12,282 ( 21.50) 128 (-4) 53 (-0.1) Classic Car 13,581 ( 10.87) 162 (-3) 68 ( 0.3) Cleo 22,453 (-18.48) 216 (-12) 86 (-0.6) ComputerWorld 5870 (-2.52) 41 (-10) 25 (0) Country-Wide Northern 60,150 ( 1.95) N/A N/A Country-Wide Southern 27,221 ( 2.22) N/A N/A Cuisine 75,810 (-1.52) 381 ( 4) 208 (-0.1) The Cut 11,359 (N/A) 49 ( 19) 26 ( 0.2) Espy 6200 ( 21.31) N/ A N/A Fashion Quarterly 22,620 ( 6.61) 196 (-12) 74 (-0.1) FFWD 10,774 (-11.70) N/A N/A FMCG 8445 ( 6.12) N/A N/A Foodtown Mag 36,644 ( 19.42) N/A 134 ( 0.5) NZ Gardener 38,196 (- 15.30) 266 (- 25) 152 (-0.8 Girlfriend 22,507 ( 4.87) 203 (-10) 71 (-0.4) Home & Entertaining 25,129 ( 2.11) 154 (-18) 57 (-0.2) Listener 75,177 (-1.30) 328 (-10) 292 (-0.2) Little Treasures 45,196 ( 2.78) 195 (-15) 163 ( 0.7) Metro 18,516 ( 2.69) 158 (-19) 67 (-0.4) New Idea 58,591 ( 2.06) 473 (-4) 300 ( 0.8) Next 66,836 (-0.94) 373 (-10) 191 (-1.3) New Idea 58,591 ( 2.06) 473 (-4) 300 ( 0.8) North & South 38,480 ( 5.20) 316 (-5) 173 (-0.4) Performance Car 18,381 ( 9.99) 276 ( 19) 94 ( 0.2) ProDesign 6917 ( 0.65) N/A N/A Reader's Digest 85,036 (-7.83) 515 (-12) 249 (-0.5) Rural News 87,854 ( 2.00) 230 (-8) 112 ( 0.1) She 19,706 ( 5.64) 102 (-19) 64 (-0.2) SkyWatch 416,290 ( 6.58) 840 (-2) 568 (-0.4) Time 34,160 (-5.60) 257 (-12) 164 ( 1.3) TV Guide 217,492 (-2.44) 898 (-3) 616 (-1.6) Telecommunications Review 1783 ( 20.15) N/A N/A Your Home & Garden 47,179 (-5.78) 291 (- 11) 127 (-0.3) Urbis 15,451 ( 2.28) N/A N/A NZ Woman's Day 142,610 (-2.48) 847 (-4) 586 (-0.1) NZ Woman's Weekly 97,769 (-3.58) 912 (-5) 456 (-0.3)